This report updates that analysis using US Census Bureau data for the years 2010-2020 and adds an overlay of age demographics to better interpret the data.

Retirees Moving in from the Northeast

Delaware continues to gain residents from the moribund and declining Northeast. But the reason is probably NOT due to economic opportunity, but for retirement purposes.

During the last decade, Delaware's in-migration trends have become more concentrated, with over 76.2% of Delaware's net in-migration coming from three states: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York.

(Table Source: Author's own calculations using data from 2010-2019 US Census Bureau.)

Why does CRI assume that these migrants are coming to retire in Delaware? Because during this same time period, Delaware has become the 4^th most rapidly aging state in the nation as measured by the growth rate in the 65+ age cohort. Delaware now has the 5^th largest percentage of the population over 65 years old in the country at 20%.

In other words, from 2010 to 2020, Delaware's 65+ population grew to become 20% of the state's population, ranking 5^th highest in the nation, and this growth rate was the 4^th highest in the country.

And, where do these new Delawareans live? During this decade, Sussex County's population grew by 22.6% and Kent County's by 13.1%, but New Castle County only grew by 4.3%, which is less than one-half of one percent per year.

Given this data, it is likely that most of this net in-migration are retirees. It is important to note that Delaware has significant tax incentives for retirees (both on income and real estate) along with relatively inexpensive real estate prices. Incentives matter.

The Young and Working Age Moving South and West

With retirees relocating from the expensive Northeast, where are Delawareans moving out-of-state going? The answer to this question is a bifurcated one. A decade ago, two-thirds of our out-migration was heading to the southern states. Today the answer is more complicated.

While just under 50% of our net out-migration is still heading to states like Florida, Texas, and Georgia, another ~20% is moving to the West Coast - Oregon, Washington, and California.

(Table Source: Author's own calculations using data from 2010-2019 US Census Bureau.)

Could these out-migrants be the sign of a "brain drain" as our working-age population seeks jobs in the tech industry? The reason to ask this question is that Delaware's working-age population (25 to 64) has been relatively flat over the last decade, growing at far less than 1% per year.

Furthermore, the under-25 population has declined by over 3% during this period. Delaware now has the 7^th smallest youth population in the nation on a percentage basis - tied with Oregon.

(Table Source: Author's own calculations using data from 2010-2020 US Census Bureau.)

The Full Picture Means No Economic Growth for Delaware

Irrespective of why young people are leaving Delaware while retirees are moving in, these are very bad demographic trends. The following chart shows 2010 versus 2020 age breakdown in Delaware.

Fundamentally, economic growth requires increases in worker productivity. With retirees moving in, youth moving out, and a flat working-age population, Delaware will not experience increases in productivity. Our economy is in a negative spiral.

For over a decade, CRI has presented policy options in education reform, tax reform, and regulatory reform that could have ameliorated these trends. CRI has been largely ignored.

On June 7^th, Delaware state leaders from business, government, and related entities will be meeting in Dover. This meeting is a chance for these leaders to make a cool-headed appraisal of where Delaware is; where it is headed; and embrace different policy ideas to change direction and remake Delaware as the "Small Wonder."

It happened under Governor du Pont in the 1980s. It is time again.