According to the leading index calculated by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Delaware can expect a contraction in the state’s economy in the second quarter of 2020. Is there any reason for concern?   Each month the Phila Fed estimates leading indexes for all the states and the nation. A positive index number signals growth ahead while a negative index signals a possible contraction. Delaware has had a negative leading index for 5 straight months now. The last time this

The Sinkhole in the NCC Economy Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 1/15/2020 It took New Castle County (NCC) until 2015 for employment to return to the high water mark hit in 2007. Since 2015 the NCC employment has only inched forward at 0.6% per annum. And the Delaware Department of Labor projects this modest growth rate to continue through 2026.   To his credit NCC executive, Matt Meyer, is committed to NCC job creation during 2020. Meyer’s “Our Jobs Now” program is streaml

Delaware Productivity Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 1/5/2020 Productivity is typically measured as the amount of output (the market value) of the goods or services each worker in an industry produces over a year.   Based upon output per worker or productivity, one can identify which industries will pay high wages and maintain competitive prices. Obviously, an industry that adds more value per worker can pay its workers more and can cut price to better compete in the mark

A Research and Data Perspective on Delaware’s Minimum Wage Dr. John Stapleford, Director and Justin Chan, Research Associate | 1/5/2020 State Senator Darius Brown has proposed additional minimum wage increases on top of the increase from the last legislative session. These proposed increases are substantial, raising the Delaware minimum wage from $9.25 to $11.00 in 2020 and then adding $1.00 every year after until a $15.00 minimum wage in 2024. An extraordinary increase of 16

Delaware and High-Tech Innovation Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 12/15/2019 In its recent report on “Growth Centers” the Brooking Institute declares that “the future of America’s economy lies in its high-tech innovation sector.”   Brookings identifies a cohort of 13 innovation industries where R&D expenditures exceed $20,000 per worker and have a STEM-worker share of 45%. These industries range from computer equipment manufacturing to scientific research and development s

The View from Pew Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 12/5/2019 The Pew Center Trust has recently updated its information website on the fiscal health of states. It confirms much of what is known about the State of Delaware’s finances.   On the positive side, as of 2018 Delaware state government could run 20.5 days on rainy day funds if tax revenues completely stopped coming in. This compares well with a U.S. state average of 23.2 days and zero days for both neighboring Pennsy

Recent economic news for Delaware Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 11/11/2019 The Fraser Institute has just released its 2018 economic freedom rankings for the states in the U.S. and Delaware remains ranked a low 39 th . Delaware ranked as high as 10 th among the states in economic freedom in 2002 and fell precipitously in the rankings following the 2007-08 recession.   The causes for the decline in ranking are straight-forward and confirmed by ratings from other organizat

A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 10/31/2019 In a recent opinion piece Ted Kaufman, relying upon data from the liberal Economic Policy Institute, argued that weak wages require policies that would restore unions and raise the minimum wage. I would favor the policies that encourage economic growth.   The Obama-Biden approach to macroeconomics was increased taxes and regulations. The Trump-Pence approach is decreased taxes and regulations. How are

Delaware Public Education: A Proposal Dr. John E. Stapleford, Director | 10/24/2019 CRI believes that the first substantive step in approaching any public policy issue is gathering unbiased data. Data, while never perfect, moves away from rhetoric and anecdotes. Data tells us where we are so that we can measure future success or failure.   The Delaware Department of Public Education is to be congratulated and commended for the detailed measures of performance it now provides

Moving Delaware Out of the Economic Doldrums David. T. Stevenson, Policy Director | 12/30/2018 Executive Summary   Why do we care about a growing economy?  The basic answer is faster growing economies lead to higher incomes making everyone a little richer, especially reducing poverty rates and unemployment rates.  The Delaware economy actually fell a half percent a year between 2007 and 2015, and ranks 43 rd in growth.  Real Median Household Income is down an astounding $12,